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regular-article-logo Thursday, 02 May 2024

Rishi Sunak is the bookies' favourite to be Britain's next PM after Truss resignation

Former chancellor's and his team said to have been meticulously planning another leadership bid, Jeremy Hunt rules himself out

Paran Balakrishnan Published 21.10.22, 10:29 AM
Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak Shutterstock

Britain’s Prime Minister Liz Truss’s resignation after 44 catastrophic days in office has triggered a new race for the leadership of the Conservative party. There’s no clarity yet about who will succeed Truss whose stint as prime minister was punctuated by one catastrophic crisis after another.

The bookmakers’ early favourite is former chancellor Rishi Sunak, who was the Conservative MPs’ preferred candidate. But he was defeated by Truss when the choice went to the party’s rank-and-file membership who disliked his plans to hike taxes and his pivotal role in toppling former prime minister Boris Johnson. British company Sky Bet’s odds of Sunak replacing Truss are at 13/8.

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There’s also a possibility Johnson may attempt a comeback even though it’s barely three months since he was forced out of office.

Truss’s demise came after 16 Conservative MPs publicly called on her to resign. She made a terse announcement about her resignation after a meeting with Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the powerful backbenchers’ 1922 Committee which wields a huge behind-the-scenes influence in the Conservative Party.

Truss, who’s on the far-right of the Conservative party, was defiant even in her resignation speech at the lectern outside Downing Street and argued she had a mandate to make the huge changes she had attempted to introduce that had sent the pound and the bond market into a tailspin. “We set out a vision for a low-tax, high-growth economy that would take advantage of the freedoms of Brexit. I recognise, though, given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative party,” she said.

There was only the slightest hint of remorse in her speech, and she insisted the steps she had taken were correct and necessary and in the country’s interests.

'Just crazy'

Senior political writers, though, said they had never seen another day of shambles as the one they had just been through. Said Robert Peston, ITV political editor, late last night: “Now that it’s over, I can say I have never known a day of such chaos and confusion in UK politics. Just crazy.”

Opposition Labour leader Keir Starmer, whose party is 30-plus points ahead in opinion polls, has called for an immediate general election, calling it undemocratic for the Conservative party to foist another unelected leader on the country. The next election must be held by law by January 2025.

Truss’s resignation finally came after Home Secretary Suella Braverman quit Tuesday and aimed a broadside at Truss, saying she could not carry out her mandate. Initially, Braverman said she had been sacked for using her personal email for official business, a technical infringement of secrecy rules. However, the Daily Mail said Thursday that Braverman had been fired after a 90-minute blazing row with Truss over boosting immigration.

Unprecedented scenes

By Tuesday evening, there were further unprecedented scenes in parliament over a vote on a resumption of fracking to which Truss had given the green light despite widespread opposition among Conservative MPs and the public at large. It was scheduled to be “confidence vote,” meaning the government would have to resign if it lost.

Senior government leaders pushed and pulled MPs into the chamber to ensure they voted and that the Conservatives wouldn’t lose. Amidst the unprecedented scenes, the Conservative Chief Whip Wendy Morton and her deputy Craig Whittaker, walked out saying they were resigning. Whittaker said, “I am f**king furious and I don’t give a f**k anymore.” Later, the same night, the two were said to have ‘Un-resigned’. Amidst the chaos it was reported that even Truss had not voted.

Rivals to succeed Truss are scrambling to secure the signatures of at least 100 Conservative MPs by next Monday to appear on the voting form. Johnson, who quit in disgrace after 10 Downing held illegal drinks parties during strict Covid lockdowns, has made no secret about his belief he was unfairly evicted from office and that he wants to return as leader.

Nadine Dorries, the former culture secretary and a staunch Johnson backer has been issuing one tweet after another demanding “the return of Boris Johnson” to No 10 Downing Street, saying he led the Conservatives to an 80-seat majority in the last general election.

Doubts about Johnson

However, there are doubts that Johnson could succeed in mustering the 100 backers from among the Conservative MPs to throw his hat into the ring. Also, there are legal issues remaining from his earlier stint in office which may prevent him from standing.

The bookies’ favourite Sunak, a Goldman Sachs banker, is seen as having the track record to reassure financial markets. Sunak and his team are said to have been meticulously planning another leadership bid in expectation that Truss’s premiership would crash and burn.

Another potential candidate is Penny Mordaunt who was knocked out of the last leadership race. She’s on the right of the party, and is far behind Sunak who’s seen as a centrist, but she may attempt to persuade Truss backers to switch their vote to her. While a strong public speaker, she’s highly inexperienced and has only held relatively junior posts in government.

Jeremy Hunt rules himself out

Jeremy Hunt, another middle-of-the-road Conservative who Truss named chancellor after her previous choice Kwasi Kwarteng presented his disastrous debt-ballooning mini-budget has ruled himself out of the contest.

Top Conservative Graham Brady says there will be a vote amongst the MPs and the names of the top two candidates will then once again go to the 160,000 Conservative Party members around the country.

But there may be heavy pressure on the runner-up from the MPs’ balloting to drop out of the race, senior party figures said. This would mean the need for the membership to vote would be eliminated.

October 28 deadline

To speed up the process, if there is a members’ vote, it will likely be carried out online. The party has set a deadline of October 28 for the conclusion of the leadership contest.

The new leader will have to be a “unity” candidate around whom all factions of the party can coalesce. Otherwise, the Conservatives are destined to be forever at each other’s throats.

What’s for certain that the high drama in British politics is by no means over and we will have plenty of fireworks in the coming days.

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