Exit polls have given the Congress an edge in the Karnataka elections, with most predicting a 2018-like situation where a hung Assembly had triggered a Congress-JDS deal for government formation.
However, unlike in 2018, when the BJP had emerged as the single-largest party, the exit polls have largely predicted that the Congress could be at the head of the pack this time.
While one survey each gave a simple majority to the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress, all others predicted a hung Assembly with the Congress winning the most number of seats.
News Nation-CGS gave 114 seats to the BJP, two more than the halfway mark in the 224-member Assembly, 86 to the Congress, 21 to the Janata Dal Secular and three “others” who could be Independents or candidates from smaller parties.
Times Now gave a simple majority to the Congress, predicting it would win 113 seats. This survey said the BJP could be way behind with 85 seats and the JDS 23, with three in the “others” category.
Four of six other exit polls gave an edge to the Congress, which is seeking a return to power by capitalising on the anti-incumbency against the BJP government headed by Basavaraj Bommai and the allegations of widespread corruption.
The remaining two exit polls predicted that the BJP could emerge as the single-largest party.
All the exit polls have given the JDS just as many seats as it would take for it to emerge as the kingmaker like in 2018. Back then, the Congress had been the first off the blocks despite finishing second, clinching a post-poll alliance with the JDS by offering H.D. Kumaraswamy the chief minister’s chair.
In the Assembly of 224 seats in 2018, the BJP had won 104, the Congress 80, the JDS 37 and four from smaller parties and an Independent, most of whom later aligned with the BJP when it engineered defections to pull down the Congress-JDS coalition government in July 2019.
The Republic TV-P Marq exit poll on Wednesday gave 94-108 seats to the Congress, 85-100 seats to the BJP, 21 to the JDS and 2-6 to others.
TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat gave 99-109 seats to the Congress, 88-98 to the BJP, 21-26 to the JDS and 0-4 to others.
Zee News-Matrize predicted that the Congress could win 103-118 seats, the BJP 79-94, the JDS 25-33, and 2-5 to others.
The Asianet Suvarna News-Jan Ki Baat survey saw the BJP leading with 94-117 seats, while the Congress lagging behind with 91-106 seats, the JDS with 14-24 and 0-2 in the “others” category.
ABP-C Voter put the Congress ahead with 100-112 seats, leaving the BJP with 83-95, the JDS at 21-29 and 2-4 others.
Poll agency ETQ Research gave a wider margin to the Congress with 106-120 seats, the BJP with 78-92, the JDS with 20-26 and 2-4 others.
Chief minister Bommai refused to attach much importance to exit polls and said the BJP would return to power with a clear majority. “Exit polls are not entirely based on ground realities. We are going to get an absolute majority,” he told reporters late in the evening.
He based his prediction on the large number of voters who had thronged polling booths late in the day before voting closed at 6pm. “People who otherwise do not come out and vote in urban areas have come out and voted,” he said.
He ruled out talking to the JDS and expressed confidence that the BJP would form the next government.
The Congress camp was upbeat with the way the campaign went. Chittapur MLA and chairman of the communications wing of the state Congress unit, Priyank Kharge, told reporters that he didn’t think too much about the exit polls.
“We don’t know what methodology they used. But I can say for sure we are winning this election on May 13 and forming the next government,” he said.
Earlier in the day, state Congress chief D.K. Shivakumar had said the voters would send the BJP packing. “A wind of change is blowing in Karnataka and this corrupt government will go home. Let them run a double engine, but every engine is set to fail. The new engine will be the Congress,” he said, predicting a clear mandate for the party.
More than 65 per cent of the 5.2 crore voters had cast their votes until 5pm. The final hour saw voters milling to polling booths in several parts of the state. Karnataka had recorded a voter turnout of 72.36 per cent in the 2018 polls.
