The Indian economy expanded at its slowest pace in nearly seven years at 4.7 per cent in the third quarter of the current fiscal amid concerns that the global spread of coronavirus could further stifle growth.

The gross domestic product (GDP) growth was recorded at 5.6 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018-19.

In the previous quarter (July-September) of the ongoing fiscal, the economic growth was revised upwards to 5.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent estimated earlier. The first-quarter growth, too, was revised to 5.6 per cent from 5 per cent.

The GDP growth for the December quarter is the lowest since January-March of 2012-13, when it stood at 4.3 per cent.

The full-year 5 per cent real GDP estimate implies a March quarter growth of 4.6 per cent, according to Sreejith Balasubramanian, economist at IDFC AMC.

So, if growth goes below 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, the full-year GDP number would come in under 5 per cent, experts warned.

“By any reasonable estimates, it may be another four to six quarters before we may see a convincing turnaround in the fortunes of the economy in a consistent fashion,” said Joseph Thomas, head of research at Emkay Wealth Management.

According to M Govinda Rao, chief economic adviser at Brickwork Ratings, there is unlikely to be much improvement in the fourth quarter in the absence of strong green shoots.

According to data released by the National Statistical Office, the gross value added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing sector contracted 0.2 per cent in the third quarter from a 5.2 per cent expansion a year ago.

However, agriculture output rose 3.5 per cent against 2 per cent in the previous quarter. The construction sector growth also slowed to 0.3 per cent from a 6.6 per cent expansion earlier. Growth in mining output came in at 3.2 per cent against a contraction of 4.4 per cent a year ago.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the “steadiness” in the economy is a good sign, soon after official data showed the December quarter GDP growth at 4.7 per cent. Speaking at an awards event, Sitharaman made it clear that she was not expecting a jump in the number either way.

Core show

The eight core industries recorded a 2.2 per cent growth in January, helped by an expansion in the production of coal, refinery products and electricity.

The infrastructure sectors had expanded 1.5 per cent in January 2019.

The production of coal grew 8 per cent, while output of refinery products was up 1.9 per cent and electricity rose 2.8 per cent.