Global rating agency Moody’s on Monday raised India’s growth forecast for the 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent on “stronger-than-expected” economic data.
In its Global Macroeconomic Outlook for 2024, Moody’s Investors Service said with global headwinds fading, the Indian economy should be able to register 6-7 per cent real GDP growth comfortably.
For 2025, the GDP growth is estimated at 6.4 per cent. Moody’s had projected a 6.1 per cent growth for 2024 earlier.
“India’s economy has performed well and stronger-than-expected data in 2023 has caused us to raise our 2024 growth estimate to 6.8 per cent from 6.1 per cent,” Moody’s said.
Moody’s forecast G20 economies will collectively expand 2.4 per cent in 2024 and 2.6 per cent in 2025, down from 2.9 per cent in 2023.
India’s real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. GDP grew 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter and by 8.1 per cent in the July-September quarter.
Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023, Moody’s said.
The agency said high-frequency indicators show that the economy’s strong September and December quarter momentum carried into the March quarter of 2024.
“Robust goods and services tax collections, rising auto sales, consumer optimism and double-digit credit growth suggest urban consumption demand remains resilient. On the supply side, expanding manufacturing and services PMIs add to evidence of solid economic momentum,” Moody’s said.