The Telegraph
Despite this, as well as the measures unveiled so far by the government to curtail non-essential imports, we will not be surprised if the merchandise trade deficit rebounds above $17.5 billion in October 2018.”
Imports, however, went up by 10.45 per cent in September. The increase works out to be 16.16 per cent during the April-September period of the 2018-19 financial year.
The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, was estimated at $13.98 billion during September 2018. The overall deficit stood at $94.32 billion in the first six months of the current fiscal.
Exports were on the rise since April, after declining by 0.66 per cent in March 2018.
Ganesh Kumar Gupta, FIEO president, said despite increasing protectionism and high volatility in currencies, Indian exporters have managed well to get new orders. He said he remained bullish on exports in the short- to medium-term basis.
Merchandise exports contracted 2.15 per cent to $27.95 billion in September, the first time exports fell this fiscal. However, analysts said the decline was because of a base effect, and pointed out that trade deficit was the lowest this month in five months despite higher crude prices.
Imports registered an increase of 10.45 per cent at $41.9 billion during the month, bringing down trade deficit to $13.98 billion, according to data released by the commerce ministry.
“This decline is entirely because of base effect resulting from September 2017 being an abnormally high growth month of about 26 per cent because of an imminent cut off then for drawbacks at pre-GST rates,” the commerce ministry said in its official release.
“This is a temporary out of trend phenomenon. Exporters continue to be resurgent with their realised incomes having gone up by almost 10 per cent. October 2018 figures promise to be according to the ongoing six-month trend again,” officials said.
Aditi Nayar, principal economist with Icra, said: “The sharper depreciation of the rupee relative to some emerging market peers is likely to positively impact exports in certain sectors, including apparels, in the second half of this fiscal.
